Analysis
By Ong Kian Ming

It is almost a week since the conclusion of the tri-elections in Bukit Gantang, Bukit Selambau and Batang Ai. While the euphoria and disappointment on the part of Pakatan and BN supporters respectively are dying down by now, the lessons that can and should be drawn from these by-elections have not been fully fleshed out.

In this article, I want to examine what we can glean from the results in what was arguable the most important by-election out of the three – the parliamentary seat of Bukit Gantang.

My own estimates show that BN managed to increase its support among the Malay voters in Bukit Gantang by 5% - from 53% in 2008 to 58% in this by-election.

However, this could not compensate for the sharp 13% drop in the level BN support among the non-Malays - from 35% in 2008 to 22% in this by-election. While the drop in the Malay support should worry PAS, the fact that Pakatan has now co-opted the BN ‘winning formula’ should most definitely worry the ruling coalition more.
(More......)