If you hold Greek's bond that's going to mature in 2014, you're doomed.

The new deal gives back 30% of redemption in cash.
The other 70% of money is structured into a new 30 years bond.

You will receive 5.5% to 8% annual interest depends on Greek's economic performance.

The new 30 years bond doesn't make sense at all, especially when 30% of money will be lent to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that's going to buy some AAA rated bonds and issues a zero coupon bond back.

With the 30% of money not going to earn any interest at all, Greece is thus using the 70% money to generate the 5.5% interest.

It means, they need to make more than 7.8% return with the money.
They need more than a miracle.

It becomes clear to me.
Greece is going to default.
The only variable here is timing.

The banks and governments are delaying it.
They structure a complicated bond so that they can throw the bombs away to people who're missed informed.

It traces back to 2008 pre-crisis era when the big investment banks in US threw their going-to-default housing debt to their customers.

It's a crime.

Greece is going nowhere but to sink deeper.