The Hard Decision

wind_feng 的头像

I remember there is some moment back in 1997, when I sit in the backseat of my parent's car overhearing their conversation on stock.

My parent have burnt their cash completely on a stock that drops to technically nothing.

That's my first investing lesson, inherited forcefully from the Great 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

Time was bad. There were articles on newspaper about people committed suicide under the pressure of loans. There were bankruptcy everywhere and jobless people barely survived on their last figure in their bank account.

Why?

This is the question that has no ultimate answer and becomes my lifelong journey on learning to make the right financial decision.

At the time I'm writing this, we are witnessing the biggest festival ever happens in town. Some call it property investing, while I often see it as the Warren Buffett's Cinderella party.

The tide is formed. There're so many people already involved in the party. Like the power of social network, the party is only going to grow exponentially.

I could give you probably 2 hours of talk about why you shouldn't join the party right now, but you probably will just shrug off and jump straight into the pool.

After all, people that go against the tide will often find themselves lonely and unheard. No one likes to be alone. This is the herd mentality of humanity that is so irresistible and can burn out the determination of the most rational man.

This time is different. That's what they use to say.

As all of the economy indicators are suggesting a big threat lying ahead, and with developers playing around the law, delightfully making more deal by subsidizing the down payment of new buyers, it's all their game to win. Not yours, or mine.

But who could resist the temptation of winning large amount of effortless money even the chance is closing down on you?

It's true that for many professional people, you may still overcome the worst case scenario by your consistent income. What I would like to point out here is the opportunity cost that you would lose.

Why would you give up your opportunity to become richer just by holding your cash now and buy something cheaper when the time comes?

After all, investing is an old tradition that never escapes of this simple rule - Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

It will be a stupidity of me if I would call this a bubble. Even if it happens, I would not even come close to be called a hero. Your version of heroes are those that are lucky enough to make money before the storm came.

Let me try to put it in a softer tone. My dear friend, are you seriously going to make loan payment on monthly basis until your 60-something?

We all make mistakes in life. But some mistakes can be a lot costlier that you can imagine. Just like a lot of other hard decision in life, you could not know what you can lose by following the most traveled path. It's only after some years later when you look back, you find that you have lost so much.

Posted In