*This post is a reply to Elebbit's 《讲华语运动》.

Ever since I experienced the near-death situation few days ago, I started to overestimate risk.
A 1/10000 chance of being crashed dead on road was suddenly magnified 1000 times on my mind.
This very little thought was reflected while I subconsciously gripped tight on the safety belt along the whole journey back today.

I was helpless in fighting my own irrational but natural behavior.

For a moment, I was thinking whether there's such a neutral point in which one will not overestimate or underestimate risk.

And then I realized how naive I am to find a neutral point when I need to deal with risk or uncertainties.

The truth about uncertainty is that one can never measure the probability of its occurrence.
What we have in statistics are pure ignorant projection to the unknown future.

And if you agree with me that we can never take measurement on uncertainties,
then there's no way one can weight his risk awareness.
Because there's no such a standard for us to compare with.

It's like you can't really know what's the chance u'll be crashed tomorrow.
Therefore you can't tune your mindset, your risk awareness to fit the probability of its occurrence.

But one thing for sure is one should not margin up too far away from the reality.
So for my case, I should relieve my tension but not to feel over relieved until I accidentally free my soul into the dreamland again.

Just like what QY reminded me:
"You can't do anything about black swans. But you can turn black swan into grey."